Why Syria is the target of this war?

The question of Syria is complicated. To properly understand it, it must be put into the general context of the Arab world and the Middle East. If you take a look at a map of the Arab world, the only country that does not follow the U.S. line in this area is Syria. If you take a different look this time at a map of the Middle East, the only country in this region that does not follow the U.S. line is Iran. Whether coincidence or not, it turns out that Syria and Iran are linked by a strategic alliance. Of course, this is not at all a coincidence, the two countries have common interests diametrically opposed to U.S. interests. What is the interest of the United States? When successive American Administrations turn their eyes toward the Middle East, they only see one country: Israel. The reasons why is it that Israel has occupied such an important place in the Unite States foreign policy is another matter; it remains that it is a fact that must be taken into consideration because it influences everything the United States is doing or not doing in the Middle East.

What is the role that Syria plays in the region in a way that upsets the United States and especially Israel? Syria is the link that binds Iran to Hezbollah. It is the conduit through which money and weapons reach Hezbollah. In 2006, Israel attacked Hezbollah in an attempt to destroy the Resistance movement that is Hezbollah, and put an end to its influence in order to regain the free hand it once had in the area and restore its total supremacy. The result of the war was disappointing for Israel. Instead of demolishing the Resistance, the Resistance was able to politically prevail by the mere fact that militarily speaking it was not defeated. Thus a new situation has emerged, a situation based on deterrence, that is, deterring Israel, a situation that Israel never knew before. From now on, Israel must think twice, probably more than twice before attacking Hezbollah. This situation is intolerable for Israel and it is imperative that something needs be done to put an end to it. The war failed, the alternative is to cut the umbilical cord that links Iran to Hezbollah. The umbilical cord is Syria. How can this be done?

The situation created by the "Arab Spring" that took place in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and Yemen, and that led to the overthrow of the regimes in these countries must be reproduced in Syria to replace the Syrian regime with another that is more accommodating to U.S. views. If this is achieved, it will stop the flow of weapons passing through Syria to reach the hands of Hezbollah's fighters. After the removal of the Syrian regime, Iran's turn will come. What has escaped the planners of such a plot is that the situation in Syria is completely different from that of the countries mentioned above. The overwhelming majority of the peoples of these countries are opposed to their governments for several reasons that do not concern us here. On the other hand, half of the people in Syria broadly support the regime. They consist of the Alawites, the Shiites, the Christians, the Druze, and the rich merchant Sunnis who profit from the regime. The other half is infiltrated by elements from outside funded by Saudi Arabia and Qatar and politically supported by the United States. The participation of Saudi Arabia and Qatar has another goal. Once the Syrian regime is toppled, Iran will be increasingly isolated. What worries the Gulf countries is not so much Syria but Iran's Shiite influence in the Arab countries that absolutely must be stopped especially in the Gulf countries that has a Shi'a majority, as in Bahrain. In my opinion, this is just a wishful thinking on the part of these corrupt regimes.

A word about the Syrian civilians who supposedly are being massacred by the regime. The regime has no problem with the opposition from within. The problem is with the outside opposition that is bent on overthrowing the government at any cost. This is the reason why this opposition refuses to have any dialogue or negotiation. In fact, half of the Syrian people supporting the government organizes demonstrations in favor of the government while calling for reforms of the political system in Syria. It also shows its total disagreement with the outside opposition that receives its orders from countries that want to change the regime. These are the facts that the Western media avoid mentioning. They present only one side of the story and o not present the other half. The world hears a truncated story. What actually happens is that these armed fighters, many of them non-Syrians coming from Sudan, Somalia, Tunisia, Morocco, even Europe barricade themselves inside neighborhoods like Baba Amr in Homs and practically take civilians as hostages. The destruction caused by bombings is due to this terrible situation created by the complete disregard of these fighters for human life.

Regarding the outcome of this problem, we can only speculate. It seems however that the Syrian regime will not be toppled for several reasons. Firstly, it has the support of half the population. Also, the government began making some reforms: for example, a referendum was held on a new constitution, political parties have begun to form, and within a month a parliamentary election will take place. Third, Syria receives political support from two major powers in the UN Security Council: Russia and China. Finally, the cohesion of the Syrian army, despite several attempts from the outside to break it, has remained loyal to the regime.

June 2012